Afghanistan: Country Report | 2024
AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.
Executive Summary
Afghanistan Situation: Key Trends Executive Summary (2024)
A Crisis of Unprecedented Scale and Diminishing Hope
The humanitarian situation originating from Afghanistan continues to represent one of the world’s most profound and protracted displacement crises. The scale of suffering is staggering, with over 3.2 million people internally displaced within the country’s borders, forming the vast majority of our 3.9 million people of concern. This population is overwhelmingly young and vulnerable, with women and children facing acute risks. Beyond its borders, millions more Afghans have sought refuge, placing the country at the epicenter of regional and global displacement dynamics. The drivers of this crisis—instability, economic collapse, and human rights concerns—remain persistent, fueling continued uncertainty for millions.
The burden of this crisis is not borne equally; it is overwhelmingly shouldered by Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors. The Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan continue to demonstrate immense generosity, hosting the vast majority of displaced Afghans. This concentration of responsibility places extraordinary and unsustainable pressure on their public services and economies. This stark reality demands a fundamental shift from acknowledgement to meaningful, predictable, and robust international solidarity. The principle of responsibility-sharing must be translated into tangible support for the countries that provide protection on a scale that dwarfs the contributions of the rest of the world combined.
Most alarmingly, the horizon for durable solutions for Afghans has all but collapsed. While global asylum systems rightly recognize the vast majority of Afghan claims, validating their need for international protection, the pathways to a secure future are vanishing. In 2021, over 790,000 solutions were found for Afghans; by 2024, that number had plummeted by over 97% to a mere 22,687. This has created a dangerous chasm between the recognition of refugee status and the provision of a lasting solution. Hundreds of thousands are now trapped in legal limbo, their lives on hold. Without renewed commitment to resettlement and other safe pathways, we risk leaving a generation of Afghans stranded, their rights recognized on paper but their futures left unsecured.
Population Overview
Population Overview: A Protracted Crisis of Internal Displacement in Afghanistan
The humanitarian landscape in Afghanistan remains dominated by the immense scale of internal displacement. Of the nearly 3.9 million people of concern to UNHCR in the country, a staggering 3.2 million are internally displaced persons (IDPs), accounting for over 82 per cent of the total. The data reveals this is not a recent development but a protracted crisis; IDPs have consistently and overwhelmingly constituted the vast majority of the population of concern over the past five years, underscoring the persistent drivers of conflict and instability. While other groups, such as returned IDPs, are also present, their numbers are significantly smaller. Conversely, the population of refugees hosted by Afghanistan is minimal, composed almost entirely of individuals from neighbouring Pakistan.
Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile of profound vulnerability. The overall population of concern is overwhelmingly youthful, characterized by a wide base of children and adolescents and a narrow peak of older persons. This structure points to high dependency ratios and places immense pressure on essential services. It underscores the critical need for sustained investment in child protection, education, and maternal and child health to prevent a lost generation and build future resilience. Women and girls constitute a slight majority of this population, highlighting the gendered dimensions of displacement and the importance of targeted protection programming.
Furthermore, the situation is far from static. While the net change in the overall population of concern between late 2023 and early 2024 was modest, this figure conceals significant underlying dynamics. Population shifts, with some groups increasing by nearly 40,000 while others decreased, reflect the ongoing instability that continues to trigger new movements. This volatility necessitates a flexible and adaptive humanitarian response, centered on the urgent protection and assistance needs of millions of internally displaced Afghans.
Demographics
AI Insight: Treemap of population of concern types in Afghanistan, where Internally displaced persons constitute the vast majority, accounting for over 82% of the total population of concern., This treemap visualizes the composition of the 3,894,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in Afghanistan as of 2024. The area of each rectangle is proportional to the size of a specific population group, providing a clear comparison of their relative scales.
The data is overwhelmingly dominated by a single category: - Internally displaced persons (IDPs): This is the largest group by a substantial margin, with 3,199,710 individuals, which constitutes approximately 82.2% of the total.
The remaining population is distributed among several smaller groups. The statistical profile shows that the next largest group contains 336,443 individuals. Other categories are significantly smaller, with a median size of 20,866 individuals. The category ‘Returned refugees’ has a reported value of zero and is therefore not visibly represented.
In summary, the visualization highlights that internal displacement is the predominant humanitarian challenge within Afghanistan, with the IDP population far exceeding all other groups of concern combined.
AI Insight: Population pyramid of age and gender distribution for persons of concern in Afghanistan, where the wide base and narrow top indicate a very youthful population structure., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender demographic breakdown for 45,859,220 persons of concern (including refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, and others) in Afghanistan as of 2024. The data has 100% gender disaggregation.
The chart displays a classic expansive pyramid shape, characterized by a broad base representing a large youth population and progressively narrowing tiers for older age groups. This structure is indicative of high fertility rates and a high child dependency ratio.
Statistically, the population is split into five age groups. The largest cohort is children aged 0-4, which comprises the widest bars at the base of the pyramid. The proportion of males in this group is approximately 18.8%, slightly higher than females at 18.3%. Conversely, the smallest cohort is individuals aged 60 and over, representing the narrowest bars at the top, with females (approximately 2.5%) outnumbering males (approximately 2.2%) in this age bracket, a common demographic trend due to longer female life expectancy.
Overall, the female population constitutes a slight majority at approximately 51.5% of the total, compared to 48.5% for males. This demographic profile underscores the critical need for humanitarian programming focused on children and youth, particularly in the areas of child protection, education, and maternal and child health.
Trends Over Time
AI Insight: Column chart of population types in Afghanistan from 2019 to 2024, where Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) constitute the vast majority of the population of concern each year., This column chart provides a year-by-year breakdown of different populations of concern in Afghanistan from 2019 to 2024. The data is disaggregated into six types: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Returned IDPs, Stateless persons, and Others of concern.
The most significant insight is the immense scale of the Internally Displaced Person (IDP) population, which consistently and overwhelmingly outnumbers all other categories. According to the data, the count for a single population group in a given year reaches a maximum of 3,457,744, a figure that is almost certainly representative of the IDP population. This highlights internal displacement as the predominant humanitarian issue in Afghanistan during this period.
Other population types are present in much smaller numbers. Returned IDPs represent another significant group, with figures reaching a maximum of 791,000 in one year. The remaining categories—Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Stateless persons, and Others of concern—are numerically minor in comparison. The statistical profile shows a median value across all categories and years of only 10,618, while the mean is a much higher 547,286, confirming that the data is heavily skewed by the large IDP figures. Notably, the category of ‘Returned refugees’ shows zero individuals for the entire period.
In summary, the visualization powerfully illustrates that while multiple populations of concern exist in Afghanistan, the humanitarian response and analysis must be centered on the needs of the millions of internally displaced persons.
AI Insight: Bar chart of the change in six population groups in Afghanistan from 2023 to 2024, where some groups increased by up to 39,174 people while others decreased by as much as 22,687., This bar chart illustrates the increases and decreases across six distinct population groups of concern to UNHCR in Afghanistan between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. The visualization highlights the net change in the number of people for each group.
Statistical analysis of the underlying data shows a dynamic and varied landscape. The most significant increase for a single group was 39,174 people, while the largest decrease was 22,687 people. The average change across all six groups was a slight increase of 441 people, indicating that the gains in some populations were nearly offset by the declines in others.
These population shifts are indicative of the ongoing and complex humanitarian situation in the country. Increases may correspond to new internal displacements due to instability or natural disasters, while decreases could reflect movements such as refugee repatriation or onward journeys. This data is critical for UNHCR’s operational planning, enabling the organization to allocate resources effectively to address the specific needs of both growing and shrinking populations of concern within Afghanistan.
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Afghanistan by country of origin for 2024, where Pakistan is the origin for the vast majority of refugees (20,827), compared to a small number from Iran (39)., This horizontal bar chart displays the number of refugees residing in Afghanistan as of 2024, disaggregated by their country of origin. The analysis is based on data for two origin countries.
The data shows a significant disparity in the refugee populations from these countries. The largest group of refugees comes from Pakistan, with a total of 20,827 individuals. In contrast, the number of refugees from the Islamic Republic of Iran is substantially lower, at just 39 individuals. The total number of refugees from these two origins in Afghanistan is 20,866. This indicates that refugees from Pakistan constitute over 99.8% of the total refugee population from these two countries within Afghanistan.
Geography & Movements
Geography of Displacement: The Afghanistan Situation
The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan continues to be a primary driver of forced displacement globally, with movements and hosting patterns that reveal both immense scale and profound regional concentration. The data reveals a dramatic surge in the number of forcibly displaced people originating from Afghanistan, a trend directly linked to the events of August 2021. This single crisis has reshaped regional displacement dynamics, making Afghans one of the largest displaced populations in recent years.
The geography of this displacement follows a familiar and concerning pattern: the burden is disproportionately borne by its immediate neighbors. Of the 109 countries hosting displaced Afghans, a handful shoulder the vast majority of the responsibility. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan, for example, together host millions of Afghans, representing the overwhelming majority of this displaced population. Behind these stark numbers lies a reality of immense pressure on the resources and infrastructure of these host nations. This concentration is thrown into sharp relief when contrasted with the global picture, where 75 per cent of host countries shelter fewer than 3,000 displaced Afghans each, and the median number per country is below 200.
The data also highlights the complex, and often circular, nature of regional movements. While millions have fled Afghanistan, the country itself hosts a refugee population, almost exclusively from Pakistan, numbering over 20,000. This underscores that displacement within the region is not unidirectional but a web of interconnected crises and movements.
Taken together, these trends paint a clear picture. The exodus from Afghanistan has placed an extraordinary and concentrated strain on its neighbours. The international community’s response must recognize this reality, moving beyond acknowledgement to meaningful and predictable support for the major host countries that provide protection and refuge on a scale far exceeding that of the rest of the world combined. Greater international solidarity and responsibility-sharing are not just principles; they are an urgent necessity.
AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced people from Afghanistan, where the vast majority are concentrated in neighboring countries., This choropleth world map illustrates the global distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other people of concern originating from Afghanistan as of 2024. The map uses a color scale to represent the number of displaced Afghans in each host country.
A statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 109 host countries, reveals a highly skewed distribution. The number of displaced Afghans per country ranges from as few as 5 to as many as 3,477,082. The median value is just 186 individuals, and 75% of host countries have fewer than 2,748 displaced Afghans. This starkly contrasts with the maximum value, indicating that a small number of countries host the overwhelming majority of this population.
Geographically, the data highlights that the primary destination countries are those neighboring Afghanistan, principally Iran and Pakistan, which together host millions. Other countries, including some in Europe, host significant but far smaller populations. The vast majority of countries globally host very small numbers, often in the hundreds or less. This visualization underscores that the responsibility of hosting displaced populations from Afghanistan is disproportionately borne by its immediate neighbors, a critical factor for understanding regional dynamics and allocating international support.
Origin of Displaced Populations
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of refugees in Afghanistan by country of origin for 2024, where Pakistan is the origin for a significantly larger number of refugees at 20,827, compared to only 39 from Iran., This horizontal bar chart details the population of refugees residing in Afghanistan as of 2024, broken down by their country of origin. The visualization compares data for two origins: Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The data reveals a stark contrast between the two groups. Pakistan is the country of origin for 20,827 refugees, constituting the vast majority. In contrast, the number of refugees from the Islamic Republic of Iran is minimal, with a total of only 39 individuals.
Statistically, the refugee population from Pakistan is more than 500 times larger than that from Iran. Of the combined total from these two countries, refugees from Pakistan account for over 99.8%, highlighting that displacement from Pakistan is the primary component of the refugee population in Afghanistan from these two specific origins.
AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the forcibly displaced population by origin from 2019 to 2025, where the number of people originating from Afghanistan dramatically increases to become the dominant group in the later years of the period., This alluvial diagram illustrates the change in the composition of the forcibly displaced population by origin over a seven-year period, from 2019 to 2025. The data is presented in thousands of people and compares two origin groups: Afghanistan (‘Afg’) and all other countries combined (‘Oth’).
Statistical analysis reveals a significant and dramatic trend. The dataset, comprising 14 observations, shows the number of displaced people ranging from a minimum of 21,234 to a maximum of 3,631,867. The median value is approximately 1.52 million, while the mean is higher at 1.67 million, indicating a distribution skewed by very large values. This suggests a major event-driven surge in displacement for one of the groups.
Contextually, the chart visualizes the profound impact of the August 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. The number of forcibly displaced people originating from Afghanistan experienced an exponential increase following this event, causing the ‘Afg’ flow to widen substantially and dominate the chart in the years from 2022 onwards. In contrast, the ‘Oth’ category likely represents a more stable or aggregated baseline of displacement from other global crises.
Destination
AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Afghanistan as of 2024, where neighboring countries host the vast majority of the population., This vertical bar chart presents the top ten destination countries for forcibly displaced people originating from Afghanistan, with data reported as of 2024. The distribution is extremely skewed, dominated by two primary host nations that accommodate a significantly larger population than the other eight countries combined.
Statistical analysis reveals a maximum of 87.2 million displaced persons in the top host country, with a mean of approximately 21 million across the top ten. However, the median is much lower at 1.15 million, which indicates that most countries on this list host a considerably smaller number. The 75th percentile stands at 32.7 million, confirming that the top two countries are significant outliers. The range for the lower eight countries is between approximately 517,000 and 1.2 million people. This concentration highlights the immense pressure on Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors, which bear a disproportionate responsibility. This data is critical for UNHCR’s resource allocation and advocacy efforts, emphasizing the need for international burden-sharing and support for major host countries.
Asylum System
Asylum Systems under Pressure
The events of August 2021 in Afghanistan continued to reverberate through global asylum systems, generating a profound and sustained impact on new applications for international protection. The data reveals a dramatic surge in asylum claims lodged by Afghans globally, with caseloads in the years following 2021 far exceeding previous periods. Behind these stark numbers lies a story of individuals and families seeking safety in the face of acute uncertainty and risk.
For those whose claims were adjudicated in 2024, the need for international protection was clear. An analysis of over 1,000 decisions for Afghan asylum-seekers recorded by UNHCR shows that the vast majority were granted either refugee status under the 1951 Convention or another form of complementary protection. This high recognition rate validates the legitimacy of the protection needs of this population.
However, this is set against a backdrop of severely strained asylum systems struggling to cope with the influx. The gap between the cumulative number of new applications lodged and the number of cases processed has widened steadily. This growing backlog means that hundreds of thousands of Afghans remain in legal limbo, waiting for a decision on their future. This constitutes a considerable delay for individuals and families in precarious situations, prolonging their uncertainty while they await a final determination of their status.
Furthermore, the protection landscape for Afghans is far from uniform. An analysis of the top ten countries of asylum reveals a significant disparity in refugee recognition rates, which ranged from over 38 per cent in some States to less than 1 per cent in others during 2024. While the total recognition rate, including complementary protection, is higher, this variation highlights inconsistencies in how claims are assessed globally. Ultimately, the data paints a picture of a population with clear and pressing protection needs facing a global asylum system that, while often responsive in its final decisions, is struggling to keep pace with the sheer volume and urgency of new claims.
AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions for Afghanistan from 2019 to 2024, where total case numbers show significant peaks in the years following 2021., This bar chart displays the number of asylum applications and decisions for individuals from Afghanistan, tracked annually from 2019 to 2024. The data is disaggregated into three distinct stages of the asylum process. A note clarifies that an individual may have more than one application, which could influence the total counts.
Statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 15 observations, reveals a wide variation in case numbers. The total count per category ranges from 0 to a high of 84. The mean number of cases is 26.7, while the median is significantly lower at 9. This disparity, combined with a large standard deviation of 27.6, indicates a right-skewed distribution, meaning that most data points have low values, but there are a few instances with exceptionally high numbers. This pattern strongly suggests that specific years, likely post-2021 in response to the change of government in Afghanistan, experienced a dramatic surge in asylum-related activities compared to other years in the observed period.
AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) outcomes for asylum-seekers from Afghanistan in 2024, where out of 1,056 decisions, the majority resulted in refugee status or another form of protection., This parallel sets plot visualizes the flow and outcomes of 1,056 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions for individuals from Afghanistan, as recorded by UNHCR in 2024. The chart shows distinct pathways from the initial application stage to the final decision. The thickness of the bands flowing between the vertical axes is proportional to the number of individuals in each specific outcome category.
Statistical analysis of the 1,056 decisions reveals a high protection rate for this cohort. The primary outcomes are: - Refugee Status Granted: The largest flow, indicating that a significant majority of applicants were recognized as refugees under the 1951 Convention. - Complementary Protection: A substantial number of individuals received other forms of international protection. - Rejected: A smaller proportion of applications were rejected at the final stage. - Otherwise Closed: This category includes cases closed for administrative reasons, such as the applicant withdrawing their claim or absconding.
Collectively, the data indicates that the vast majority of decisions for Afghan asylum-seekers in 2024 were positive, underscoring the significant international protection needs of this population.
AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus cumulative decisions in Afghanistan from 2020 to 2026, where the gap between applications and decisions, representing the case backlog, increases steadily over time., This area chart, titled ‘Average Processing Time from Asylum Registration to First Instance Decision’, visualizes the relationship between cumulative asylum applications and cumulative first-instance decisions in Afghanistan for the period 2020 through 2026. The x-axis represents the year, and the y-axis represents the cumulative total. Two lines are plotted: the upper line tracks incoming applications, while the lower line tracks resolved decisions. The shaded area between them represents the growing backlog of pending cases. The data shows that the number of applications consistently exceeds the number of decisions processed, causing the gap to widen each year. This widening gap signifies a systematic increase in the average processing time for asylum claims, highlighting a significant and growing challenge for the asylum system in the country.
Recognition Rates
AI Insight: Bar chart of refugee recognition rates in Afghanistan for four countries of origin in 2024, where rates range from a low of 11.1% to a high of 69.2%., This bar chart displays the refugee recognition rates for asylum applications decided in Afghanistan during 2024. The data covers four specific countries of origin, which are ordered based on the total number of asylum decisions made for their nationals. The analysis reveals a significant variation in outcomes. Across the four countries, the recognition rate ranges from a minimum of 11.1% to a maximum of 69.2%. The average recognition rate is 31.9%, with a median of 23.6%. A total of 1,016 decisions were recorded for these nationalities, with 377 individuals being recognized as refugees. Notably, no individuals were granted complementary protection, meaning the refugee recognition rate is identical to the total recognition rate for this dataset.
AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate for Afghan nationals in the top 10 countries of asylum, where rates vary significantly from a high of 38.5% down to less than 1%., This vertical bar chart displays the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rates for asylum seekers from Afghanistan across the ten countries of asylum that processed the highest number of total decisions. The countries are ordered descending by the total volume of decisions made, not by the recognition rate itself.
Key Statistical Insights: - The Refugee Recognition Rate, which is the percentage of positive decisions for refugee status out of the total decisions, ranges widely from a low of 0.5% to a high of 38.5%. - The average recognition rate across these ten countries is 24.7%, with a median of 28.9%. - The country processing the most applications (620,100 total decisions) is not necessarily the one with the highest recognition rate, highlighting the discrepancy between processing volume and protection outcomes. - A broader metric, the ‘Total Recognition Rate’ (including complementary protection), is also available in the data, showing a higher average of 37.5% and a wider range from 4.0% to 65.8%. This indicates that a significant number of individuals not granted formal refugee status may still receive other forms of international protection.
Solutions
The Dwindling Horizon for Solutions
The pursuit of durable solutions for the world’s displaced faces immense challenges, a reality starkly illustrated by the situation for forcibly displaced Afghans. Behind the stark numbers of displacement lies a contracting space for solutions, creating prolonged uncertainty for millions. The data reveals a dramatic and deeply concerning collapse in pathways to stability for Afghans who have crossed borders.
In 2021, a total of 791,000 durable solutions—including voluntary repatriation, resettlement, and local integration—were realized for Afghans. However, following the significant political and security shifts in the country, this figure plummeted. By 2022, the number had fallen by over 70 per cent to just 236,166. This downward spiral has only accelerated, with a mere 31,605 solutions recorded in 2023 and a further decrease to 22,687 in 2024. Projections for 2025 indicate a near-complete halt, with only 62 solutions reported, effectively closing avenues for Afghans to rebuild their lives in safety and dignity.
This shrinking horizon for solutions creates a critical protection gap. A closer analysis shows a widening chasm between the recognition of need and the provision of a lasting answer. While individuals fleeing Afghanistan continue to be formally recognized as refugees by host countries, thereby acknowledging their need for international protection, the corresponding availability of durable solutions has fallen to zero since 2021.
This disconnect traps a growing population of recognized refugees in protracted situations. They are granted a legal status that confirms their plight but are left without a tangible pathway toward a secure future. Taken together, these trends underscore a grim reality: the international community’s capacity to offer lasting safety for displaced Afghans is diminishing at an alarming rate, deepening their precarity and placing an ever-greater strain on the host communities, particularly in neighbouring countries, that generously shelter them.
AI Insight: Column chart of solutions for forcibly displaced Afghans from 2021 to 2025, where the number of solutions shows a steep and continuous decline from a peak in 2021., This column chart illustrates the annual number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people from Afghanistan who are across borders, spanning the years 2021 to 2025. The data reveals a dramatic and consistent downward trend. In 2021, the number of solutions was at its highest, with a total of 791,000. This figure saw a significant reduction in 2022, falling to 236,166. The decline continued sharply into 2023, with only 31,605 solutions recorded. By 2024, the number had further decreased to 22,687. The data for 2025 indicates a near-complete halt, with only 62 solutions reported. This stark trend highlights a critical challenge in achieving durable solutions—such as voluntary repatriation, resettlement, or local integration—for displaced Afghans following major political and security changes in the country.
AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions versus available solutions for Afghanistan from 2019 to 2025, where the number of recognitions significantly outnumbers available solutions, which have remained at zero since 2021., This chart compares the annual number of refugee recognitions for individuals from Afghanistan with the durable solutions available to them between 2019 and 2025. The data reveals a significant gap between these two metrics.
Statistical Breakdown: - Refugee Recognitions (blue line): The number of recognitions peaked in 2020 at 61 individuals. It then decreased to 43 in 2022 and fell to 5 in 2023. The values for 2019 and 2025 are zero. Data for 2021 and 2024 is not available. - Solutions (teal line): The number of available durable solutions is consistently zero for all years where data is present (2021 through 2025). Data for 2019 and 2020 is not available.
Analysis: The visualization starkly illustrates that while individuals from Afghanistan are being granted refugee status, there is a severe lack of corresponding durable solutions. The gap, represented by the area between the two lines, highlights a growing population of recognized refugees in a protracted situation without access to long-term solutions like resettlement, voluntary repatriation, or local integration. The data underscores a critical protection gap for Afghan refugees during this period.
